The pressure continues to mount on Preston North End boss Ryan Lowe and the numbers don’t look good for him as he fights to keep his job.
PNE slumped to another defeat on Monday afternoon, losing 2-0 away at Sunderland.
This was yet another dismal performance from North End, who looked completely flat and uninspired at the Stadium of Light.
Ryan Lowe picked up a big win on Boxing Day by beating Leeds United, but successive defeats to Sheffield Wednesday and Sunderland have piled the pressure on him once again.
PNE backed Lowe before the Leeds game but it’s difficult to find too many supporters who would be against a managerial change.
It’s never nice to see somebody lose their job but this run of four wins – alongside 11 defeats – in the last 19 games leaves Lowe in major trouble.
The stats don’t really help Lowe either from a long-term or short-term perspective, with some pretty troubling data emerging about his PNE side…
-13 – PNE’s goal difference after 26 games this season. Only four Championship clubs have a worse goal difference this season; Huddersfield Town, Queens Park Rangers, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham United. They are the bottom four clubs in the league right now.
35 – The number of Championship games in which PNE have failed to score under Lowe. That is more than a third of his 97 games in charge.
18 – The number of Championship games this season – from a possible 26 – in which PNE have registered three or fewer shots on target.
Nine of those 18 games came at Deepdale whilst 12 of those 18 games have seen PNE register two or fewer shots on target.
242 – The number of shots PNE have taken this season, per FBRef. Once again, only bottom club Rotherham United rank lower.
76 – The number of shots on target PNE have recorded this season, per FBRef. You guessed it, only Rotherham United are lower for that statistic.
0.86 – Preston North End’s xG per 90 minutes in the Championship this season, per Footy Stats. Only bottom-of-the-table Rotherham United have a lower figure at 0.77.
-0.52 – PNE’s xG Difference this season, per Footy Stats. This is the xG minus xG Against, per 90 minutes.
Again, only bottom club Rotherham have a worse xGD per 90 minutes. xG is not the ball and end all, but it’s a useful metric for team performance and it doesn’t read well for PNE.
Footy Stats calculate their xG using a ‘combination of shot accuracy (on/off target), shot frequency (number of shots), attack dangerousness, overall attack pressure (possession amount and depth of possession)’.
Using more traditional xG, per FBRef, PNE rank third-bottom for total xG this season and fifth-bottom for xGD.
12 – The number of Championship games since Lowe’s appointment in which PNE have conceded four or more goals.
Lowe has recorded 12 such games in his 97 league outings as PNE boss compared to 11 in 406 games under the trio of predecessors in Simon Grayson, Alex Neil and Frankie McAvoy.
31 – The number of home games PNE have failed to win in Lowe’s 49 attempts. This is made up of 15 draws and 16 defeats alongside 18 wins.
The last 10 games provide a series of unwanted stats too...
7 – The number of points North End have taken from the last 10 games, the joint-worst record in the league.
7 – The number of defeats PNE have suffered in this 10-game run. No other team in the Championship has lost more.
8 – The number of goals PNE have scored in the last 10 games, the worst record in the Championship.
20 – The number of goals conceded by PNE in the last 10 games. Only one club – Blackburn Rovers – have conceded more.
North End aren’t passing the eye test right now and the stats back up what we are seeing.
This isn’t just a period of inconsistency or a sticky patch, PNE have flattered to deceive for a while now.
Just over two years ago, Lowe came in from Plymouth Argyle and said all the right things.
Lowe proudly declared that he would take the shackles off the North End squad and promised attacking football.
“We might have to take the shackles off players, coach them the right way – I’m not saying they haven’t been coached the right way – but it will be a different style and a different brand. It will be an attacking brand where we want plenty of shots and attempts at goal. If we do that, we’ll win more than we lose,” Lowe told the Lancashire Evening Post, immediately sparking excitement about the Lowe era.
The problem with making those kind of statements is that you will ultimately be held to them and your reign will be measured against those opening gambits.
As of right now, Lowe hasn’t delivered on the promises.
PNE fans haven’t seen a consistently dangerous attacking side throughout Lowe’s tenure and there are clearly massive issues defensively too.
A battling win over Leeds United has been followed by two more flat and pretty unthreatening performances, making that Boxing Day victory feel more like an outlier than a spark to set PNE alight again.
Lowe has been streaky at times in his career; a run of two wins in 10 last season saw Lowe come under immense pressure, but he ended up winning six of the next nine games to fire PNE into playoff contention.
Maybe Lowe can do it again and galvanise this squad, but an enormous improvement will be needed to convince an increasingly agitated PNE fanbase.