Preston North End fell short in what was their pivotal game of the season, as Norwich City scored a late winner to strengthen their hold on the final play-off place.
After some favourable results in midweek Preston had the opportunity to overtake The Canaries if they beat them and won their game in hand. The game was finely poised throughout but ultimately Preston lost out to a very strong team with more quality on show.
Déjà vu
It feels as if many of our seasons in the Championship since returning to this level in 2015 have ended in this manner. We have patches of good form intertwined with some terrible form before April arrives and it suddenly looks as if we are about to gate crash the top six.
In 2018 under Alex Neil we faced Derby County at a similar stage of the season, knowing that whoever won would be in pole position for a play-off spot. Alan Browne missed a penalty on that day for The Lilywhites before Tom Lawrence scored a free-kick for The Rams. We would miss out to Derby for 6th place by just two points come the end of the season, meaning a draw against them would have been enough.
Last season we headed to London for a game with Millwall level on points with them in 6th place. We lost that day 2-0, before only getting one point from the remaining four games after that.
The Norwich game felt huge going into it, Ryan Lowe had already said it was the biggest game of his reign.
Potts and Millar absence felt
We’ve had to deal with injuries aplenty in the last month and they all seem to have come in our midfield. Brad Potts has only played 19 minutes since the 10th February with Liam Millar only able to play 27 minutes in the last five games.
They are clearly our best options in the wing-back roles and without them it feels like square pegs in round holes, especially on the right side. Alan Browne has missed a few games as well, so it has led to Duane Holmes and Robbie Brady covering that role.
Both have performed admirably but they don’t have the same burst of pace or creativity as Potts and Millar. Against Norwich on Saturday we seemed to be lacking ideas. David Wagner’s side defended very well, and we could only muster any chances from set pieces.
We needed some runs down the wings, getting to the byline and putting the ball in the box. But all the crosses came from very deep areas. There was little for the strikers to feed off.
A good display from Whatmough but we needed Whiteman
Jack Whatmough played in central midfield for the second time after being shoehorned in there for the Watford game last week. With Ali McCann injured and potentially out for the season, Lowe turned to Whatmough for some sturdiness in the middle. Ryan Ledson had returned to the bench but may not have been ready to start the game.
Whatmough played well, and came closest to scoring when his header crashed against the bar in the first half. He broke up play with three interceptions and two blocks and also won all fives of his aerial duels.
We needed more going forward though. He didn’t look confident playing balls into the final third like Ben Whiteman would have done, and with Mads Frokjaer having a poor game by his standards, we had little creativity from the midfield.
Four strikers on the pitch
Obviously Preston had to win this game, and a draw wouldn’t have been enough. The game was on a knife edge and it was increasingly looking like it would be won by a solitary goal. Will Keane and Milutin Osmajic hadn’t seen much of the ball but we know that they can be deadly finishers when given the opportunity.
Emil Riis was on the bench and was the obvious player to turn to in search of a goal. He came on for Frokjaer, and although his fellow Dane had misplaced a few chances, he was still the most likely to put it on a plate for the forwards.
Keane ended up dropping into the number 10 role but he doesn’t get on the ball enough. Riis did have one good opportunity in the box from a wide position but seemed to get caught in two minds between passing and shooting.
With the clock ticking towards 81 minutes, Lowe rolled the dice again. He turned to another striker in Ched Evans. The Welshman has only managed 16 games this season, and has been on the winning side in just four of those.
He’s had his injury struggles and hasn’t been anywhere near the level he was at last year, when he was able to make a substantial contribution. He came on for Duane Holmes, which left Preston with four strikers on the pitch.
But it was disjointed and amateur in the way we were now set up. Brady seemed to just be floating around. Emil Riis was wide on the left, with Osmajic now playing right-wing back.
Evans was isolated on his own, and he isn’t the most mobile so couldn’t do anything with the ball. If you have four strikers on then need to be playing closer together, and there needs to be someone capable of creating chances for them. But we had taken those players off.
You can understand why Lowe did it but it wasn’t well though out and it wasn’t a surprise that Norwich were able to take advantage of the fragmented team.
Where do we go from here?
Last season we were only able to get one point from the last five games. With four games remaining of this campaign it could follow a similar pattern. The away game to Queens Park Rangers next Saturday is the only fixture that seems winnable.
The other three matches are against promotion contenders in Southampton, Leicester City and West Bromwich Albion. I could see a heavy loss or two in there.
The players looked distraught on Saturday, and it will be tough to pick themselves up for those tough fixtures. Some fans may like to see youngsters given a chance but it’s not as if these games are dead rubbers.
We could still end up finishing 12th if we don’t pick up many more points which would be a shame after such a good start and run in February and March too.
It is become tiring these near misses, but fundamentally there are much better teams in this division and it is getting harder and harder to compete at the top end. There are plenty of ‘what if?’ moments to take from this season, including home defeats to QPR, Sheffield Wednesday and Stoke City, but every team has those.
There shouldn’t be too much of a turnover in players in the summer, so it will be a similar squad to have a go next season. But question marks remain over whether Alan Browne will be part of it.